Wed, Oct 19, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
St. Louis Blues 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 312 | 09 | 06 | 11 | 428 |
| SEA | 110 | 212 | 012 | 01 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16STLJordan KyrouAssists: Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:51SEAWill BorgenAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 11:55STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P1 12:12STLJustin FaulkAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 10:44SEARyan DonatoAssists: Brandon Tanev, Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 18:31SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 2:10STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:00SEAJustin Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:09SEARyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:09SEARyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:09STLIvan Barbashev: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:59SEAAdam Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:15STLJake Neighbours: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:15STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:15SEAWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- O'Reilly – Saad – Kyrou9:28
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 1–2
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Thomas9:10
xG 0.52–0.62 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Leivo – Barbashev – Neighbours6:17
xG 0.07–0.35 (16%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Walker – Acciari – Toropchenko9:11
xG 0.49–0.82 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko19:06
xG 0.90–0.80 (53%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola11:02
xG 0.32–0.75 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug16:02
xG 0.73–1.32 (36%)attempts 10–25goals 2–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – McCann – Kuhlman7:52
xG 0.43–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Donato – Tanev – Wright4:18
xG 0.75–0.39 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers13:28
xG 0.78–0.57 (58%)attempts 17–7goals 0–2
- Gourde – McCann – Tanev2:27
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:32
xG 1.35–1.03 (57%)attempts 27–13goals 2–2
- Soucy – Borgen13:00
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak14:57
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).