Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 14 | 016 | 12 | 327 |
| NYR | 08 | 213 | 02 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:02SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Luke Kunin, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 1:50NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:05NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Adam Fox, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:10SJSRadim SimekAssists: Matt Nieto, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:49SJSErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:59SJSLuke Kunin: Interference2 min
- P1 2:48SJSMatt Benning: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:28NYRSammy Blais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:49SJSRadim Simek: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:31NYRJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:11SJSLuke Kunin: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:02SJSLuke Kunin: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:19NYRArtemi Panarin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSvechnikov – Gadjovich – Sturm6:48
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nieto – Lindblom – Lorentz6:52
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Bonino – Couture – Kunin8:36
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov12:05
xG 0.45–0.91 (33%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Benning12:38
xG 0.38–0.03 (91%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro3:08
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Simek9:58
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:03
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Chytil9:21
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko9:01
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Vesey – Carpenter6:49
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller16:39
xG 0.69–0.22 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren12:48
xG 0.71–0.35 (67%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Schneider11:51
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).