Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vancouver Canucks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 111 | 07 | 00 | 326 |
| MIN | 213 | 06 | 113 | 15 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 7:58VANBo HorvatAssists: Tanner Pearson, Brock Boeser · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 16:47VANNils AmanAssists: Dakota Joshua, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 19:00MINSam SteelAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 13:37VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nils Aman · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 8:31MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Calen Addison · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:02MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Calen Addison · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:39VANLuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:37VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:09MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:09VANRiley Stillman: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:56MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11VANTanner Pearson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:44VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:44MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:29MINJonas Brodin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLazar – Joshua – Aman5:36
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Pettersson – Podkolzin – Kuzmenko9:58
xG 0.60–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Miller – Garland – Mikheyev8:48
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser11:00
xG 0.13–1.09 (10%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Ekman-Larsson2:17
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Schenn – Hughes10:49
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Hughes4:58
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Duhaime – Boldy2:47
xG 0.61–0.01 (99%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov12:37
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Boldy – Rossi6:00
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:19
xG 0.02–0.03 (40%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:44
xG 0.78–0.47 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon2:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Middleton – Addison2:26
xG 0.05–0.18 (22%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).