Thu, Oct 20, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 216 | 212 | 440 |
| EDM | 113 | 29 | 311 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:22EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:38CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 8:20EDMRyan McLeodSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 10:21EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 12:35CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 1:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 3:38CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Stefan Noesen · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:16EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 8:55CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–5
- P3 19:50EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:17CARPaul Stastny: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:30EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:20CARMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:54CARCalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:35EDMRyan McLeod: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:21CARBrady Skjei: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:33EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:09CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P3 14:26EDMEvander Kane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov13:01
xG 0.94–0.24 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook6:56
xG 0.50–0.18 (73%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Stastny – Staal – Fast3:58
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen4:43
xG 0.04–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:13
xG 0.83–0.66 (56%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- de Haan – Chatfield8:20
xG 0.32–0.36 (48%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:28
xG 0.29–0.69 (30%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod6:31
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto11:42
xG 0.77–0.61 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Shore – Ryan – McLeod2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl11:32
xG 0.49–1.06 (32%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse13:06
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Barrie – Murray2:37
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Niemelainen – Bouchard4:33
xG 0.15–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).