Thu, Oct 20, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Winnipeg Jets 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 110 | 111 | 228 |
| VGK | 413 | 010 | 19 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23VGKJack EichelAssists: Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:11VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Michael Amadio, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:07VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 15:17VGKJack EichelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P2 7:23WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Neal Pionk, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 10:34WPGNeal PionkAssists: Josh Morrissey, Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:38VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:46VGKAdin Hill: Interference2 min
- P1 14:48WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P1 17:22WPGCole Perfetti: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:23WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson6:19
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton12:25
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Barron9:17
xG 0.11–0.30 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti12:01
xG 0.31–0.60 (34%)attempts 16–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk15:42
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 2–0
- Dillon – Schmidt15:04
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- DeMelo – Schmidt2:22
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Howden12:11
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Amadio10:36
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy8:53
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Kessel – Smith – Eichel10:49
xG 0.19–0.33 (37%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo17:27
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:14
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:14
xG 0.08–0.30 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).