Fri, Oct 21, 2022·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 26 | 112 | 09 | 01 | 328 |
| CHI | 03 | 111 | 213 | 12 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26DETPius SuterAssists: Robert Hagg, Gustav Lindstrom · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 10:33DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 5:41CHIAndreas AthanasiouUnassisted · Snap, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 11:18DETDominik KubalikAssists: Olli Maatta · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 3:46CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Sam Lafferty, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:06CHIConnor MurphySHAssists: Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 2:16CHIMax DomiGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:02CHIJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:43DETRobert Hagg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 12:25DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:25CHIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:25CHIMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:06DETOskar Sundqvist: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:16CHICaleb Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:41DETFilip Hronek: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:20DETDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20CHISam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:20DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:04CHIJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:47CHIAlex Stalock: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Zadina – Raymond11:17
xG 0.71–0.26 (74%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Erne – Suter – Veleno7:44
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Soderblom8:36
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Larkin9:54
xG 0.24–0.73 (25%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider15:54
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Maatta – Hronek14:31
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom10:21
xG 0.49–0.57 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDickinson – Lafferty – Kurashev9:23
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi14:45
xG 0.80–0.74 (52%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Toews – Johnson – Raddysh9:42
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Khaira – Entwistle4:34
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Jones12:08
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Jones – Jones3:23
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- McCabe – Jones11:46
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).