Sat, Oct 22, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Minnesota Wild 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 110 | 17 | 19 | 01 | 327 |
| BOS | 212 | 114 | 08 | 19 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:55MINBrandon DuhaimeSHAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Connor Dewar · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 3:12BOSNick FolignoAssists: Taylor Hall, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:45BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Taylor Hall, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 6:41BOSHampus LindholmAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:58MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 15:29MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jonas Brodin · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 4:49BOSTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: David Krejci, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:05MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:52BOSJakub Lauko: Holding2 min
- P1 16:54MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:37MINMatt Boldy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:09BOSDavid Krejci: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02BOSCraig Smith: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:49BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:52BOSHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:22MINMathew Dumba: Holding the stick2 min
- OT 2:57MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Boldy – Rossi10:30
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Steel – Duhaime – Dewar5:32
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:31
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Jost7:26
xG 0.04–0.83 (4%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Addison5:03
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Middleton – Addison2:37
xG 0.01–0.04 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Merrill4:01
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic6:43
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak11:09
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Zacha – DeBrusk9:59
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Nosek – Lauko5:18
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Grzelcyk13:59
xG 0.85–0.14 (86%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Forbort – Clifton12:22
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Reilly – Zboril11:15
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).