Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 28 | 113 | 326 |
| WSH | 08 | 07 | 417 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:26LAKSean DurziAssists: Viktor Arvidsson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 15:23LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Trevor Moore · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 3:11WSHNic DowdAssists: Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:10WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 8:59WSHLars EllerAssists: Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 10:31LAKViktor ArvidssonAssists: Trevor Moore · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 14:35WSHMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, T.J. Oshie · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:38LAKAnze Kopitar: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:57LAKAdrian Kempe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:48WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore10:24
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 12–17goals 3–0
- Vilardi – Kaliyev – Byfield8:44
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte10:31
xG 0.15–0.25 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe13:18
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi13:53
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Doughty – Anderson18:45
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Edler – Clarke10:30
xG 0.44–0.84 (34%)attempts 7–19goals 1–3
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Protas11:43
xG 0.54–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Oshie – Johansson – Strome7:41
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Oshie – Johansson – Kuznetsov4:24
xG 0.11–0.23 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Snively6:57
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov13:53
xG 1.27–0.48 (73%)attempts 25–12goals 3–2
- Orlov – Jensen2:18
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk10:14
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).