Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 316 | 316 | 639 |
| CBJ | 217 | 16 | 09 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:44CBJJack RoslovicSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 3:43PITJosh ArchibaldAssists: Ryan Poehling · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:57CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Jack Roslovic · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 10:04PITJan RuttaAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 14:19PITDanton HeinenAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 5:38PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 14:07PITDanton HeinenAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 14:51PITBrock McGinnAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Jan Rutta · Backhand, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:27PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:22CBJAndrew Peeke: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:48CBJKent Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:03CBJSean Kuraly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Heinen12:13
xG 0.95–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 3–1
- Carter – McGinn – Kapanen10:03
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Archibald – McGinn – Poehling2:21
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Zucker – Archibald – Poehling4:18
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Rutta10:50
xG 0.97–0.08 (93%)attempts 14–4goals 3–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:17
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Petry – Pettersson3:28
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Robinson6:51
xG 0.28–0.16 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Roslovic – Johnson11:39
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Chinakhov – Johnson – Sillinger2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Danforth – Chinakhov – Sillinger3:03
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Blankenburg17:46
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Gavrikov – Peeke13:07
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Werenski – Bean2:42
xG 0.02–0.05 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).