Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Buffalo Sabres 5, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 210 | 07 | 310 | 527 |
| VAN | 012 | 110 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 15:18BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 13:27VANConor GarlandPPAssists: Tanner Pearson, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 1:54BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Asplund · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 16:31BUFZemgus GirgensonsENAssists: Victor Olofsson, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–1
- P3 17:21BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:11VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 6:19BUFJJ Peterka: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:53BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:40BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:39BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:29
xG 0.82–0.14 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka11:24
xG 0.72–0.49 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Quinn7:58
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:05
xG 0.33–0.79 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson7:16
xG 0.67–0.07 (90%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Lyubushkin7:38
xG 0.66–0.13 (83%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Fitzgerald – Power6:52
xG 0.56–0.34 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Podkolzin – Kuzmenko12:31
xG 0.96–0.51 (66%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Miller – Garland – Mikheyev11:30
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser8:11
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman9:13
xG 0.05–0.46 (10%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson15:16
xG 0.94–0.77 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Myers – Rathbone2:40
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Schenn – Burroughs17:44
xG 0.66–1.01 (40%)attempts 15–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).