Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 02 | 012 | 01 | 227 |
| CGY | 16 | 114 | 08 | 14 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:44CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 10:28CARCalvin de HaanAssists: Paul Stastny, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 13:31CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 2:31CGYBrett RitchieUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 4:30CGYTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:12CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:07CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:09CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:32CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:53CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P3 8:24CGYNoah Hanifin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:24CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stepan – Noesen6:45
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:14
xG 0.83–0.25 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook7:44
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov13:26
xG 0.26–0.17 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield10:04
xG 1.01–0.07 (93%)attempts 15–2goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin14:25
xG 0.92–0.11 (90%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce12:52
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman10:50
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube9:40
xG 0.10–0.40 (21%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm9:03
xG 0.11–0.57 (17%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney7:30
xG 0.09–0.56 (13%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tanev – Weegar13:39
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov11:38
xG 0.15–0.89 (14%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:55
xG 0.21–1.04 (17%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).