Sun, Oct 23, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 17 | 111 | 226 |
| FLA | 215 | 010 | 17 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39FLAAnton LundellUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:13FLAEetu LuostarinenUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:27NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 2:56FLARyan LombergGWGAssists: Colin White, Eetu Luostarinen · Slap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 9:07NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:15NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:28FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:45NYIRoss Johnston: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:33FLAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min
- P2 3:36FLAMatt Kiersted: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 9:10NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:28FLAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:45FLAEetu Luostarinen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:13
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Palmieri – Barzal2:02
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Johnston2:24
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Wahlstrom5:17
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Aho3:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov6:32
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:06
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Balcers – Tkachuk8:43
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart10:23
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell6:58
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Cousins – Lomberg5:12
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Kiersted5:03
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Montour – Forsling9:32
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gudas – Forsling3:23
xG 0.19–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).