Mon, Oct 24, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 112 | 09 | 110 | 231 |
| OTT | 09 | 114 | 39 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:31DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 19:23OTTThomas ChabotPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 4:17OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:11OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Tyler Motte, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 11:30OTTDerick BrassardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 17:44DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:54OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:54DALRyan Suter: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:06OTTBrady Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:27OTTTravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:46DALTyler Seguin: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:19DALJoel Kiviranta: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:54
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta5:32
xG 0.46–0.19 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Benn – Seguin – Marchment2:16
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston5:42
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen12:33
xG 0.95–0.61 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist4:39
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell2:47
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Giroux – Brassard – DeBrincat9:47
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle10:04
xG 0.69–0.83 (45%)attempts 14–10goals 1–2
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly7:18
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto6:42
xG 0.17–0.33 (34%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom8:46
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson10:27
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Chabot – Zub16:30
xG 0.71–1.41 (34%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).