Mon, Oct 24, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Edmonton Oilers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 219 | 14 | 012 | 335 |
| EDM | 19 | 426 | 112 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:36EDMZach HymanAssists: Evan Bouchard · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:44PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 12:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Tristan Jarry · Slap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 2:00PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 4:03EDMTyson BarriePPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 15:09EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- P2 18:28EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.18 xG3–4
- P2 19:37EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 16:45EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:14EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:49EDMDarnell Nurse: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 3:31PITJeff Petry: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:17PITTristan Jarry: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:30EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:17PITBrock McGinn: Interference2 min
- P3 12:54EDMDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Heinen9:10
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell2:09
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Archibald – Caggiula – Poehling6:00
xG 0.08–0.19 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rust5:19
xG 0.35–0.49 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Joseph – Rutta10:39
xG 0.43–0.93 (32%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Petry – Pettersson14:32
xG 0.72–1.37 (34%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
- Letang – Dumoulin14:37
xG 0.12–0.97 (11%)attempts 6–21goals 0–3
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto7:48
xG 1.48–0.05 (97%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid5:09
xG 0.58–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod3:42
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod3:34
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard4:58
xG 1.38–0.09 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 2–0
- Barrie – Nurse8:31
xG 0.81–0.07 (92%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Murray – Bouchard4:38
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).