Mon, Oct 24, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 0, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 013 | 05 | 07 | 025 |
| WPG | 013 | 19 | 321 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:30WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 10:38WPGSam GagnerAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 13:43WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Adam Lowry, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 18:26WPGCole PerfettiENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.57 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:18WPGMason Appleton: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:15STLBrayden Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:20STLNiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P2 17:06STLNiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:35STLJordan Kyrou: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:33STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00STLAlexey Toropchenko: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Leivo – Brown – Neighbours4:49
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Kyrou7:48
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Brown – Kyrou – Neighbours2:50
xG 0.02–0.24 (9%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas9:47
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko14:54
xG 0.85–0.61 (58%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Leddy – Faulk2:20
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola7:14
xG 0.28–0.78 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Lowry – Barron8:02
xG 1.04–0.21 (83%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton11:46
xG 1.10–0.42 (72%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson5:17
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti11:58
xG 0.46–0.68 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley9:14
xG 1.12–0.14 (89%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk15:36
xG 0.90–0.51 (64%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Dillon – Schmidt14:29
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).