Mon, Oct 24, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 17 | 06 | 123 |
| VGK | 19 | 012 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:51VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Phil Kessel · Bat, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 11:42TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 0:42VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P3 8:11VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:52TORPierre Engvall: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 16:40VGKReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:32TORMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:29TORAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:17VGKBrayden McNabb: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews15:05
xG 1.20–0.94 (56%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Clifford – Kampf5:09
xG 0.04–0.45 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson9:35
xG 0.53–1.04 (34%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Engvall6:18
xG 0.09–0.72 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Mete12:04
xG 0.97–0.81 (54%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Holl – Sandin13:11
xG 0.77–0.90 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:12
xG 0.07–1.12 (6%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Eichel11:45
xG 1.40–0.67 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden8:33
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:07
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy7:42
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud16:17
xG 1.51–0.12 (93%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:34
xG 1.04–0.56 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo10:43
xG 0.82–0.98 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).