Tue, Oct 25, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 011 | 110 | 010 | 131 |
| BOS | 110 | 112 | 17 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Hampus Lindholm, David Krejci · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:48DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 18:57BOSTaylor HallGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:33BOSPatrice BergeronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:13DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P1 2:30BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:49DALDenis Gurianov: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:45BOSConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:45DALColin Miller: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:45DALColin Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:40BOSConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P3 7:04BOSTrent Frederic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:41DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Faksa – Gurianov5:10
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta2:20
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:45
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:02
xG 0.41–0.33 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Lundkvist14:01
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley9:25
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Hakanpää3:07
xG 0.01–0.05 (22%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic8:31
xG 0.77–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Zacha – DeBrusk8:28
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak10:48
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
- Foligno – Nosek – Greer6:59
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton11:17
xG 1.01–0.49 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 0–1
- Reilly – Carlo11:27
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:00
xG 0.05–0.15 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).