Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Minnesota Wild 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 114 | 16 | 331 |
| MTL | 06 | 19 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:07MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Chris Wideman, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 12:48MINBrandon DuhaimeGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 19:29MINJoel Eriksson EkENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.80 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:35MINCalen Addison: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:57MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:57MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:29MTLKaiden Guhle: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:39MINJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P2 5:44MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:08MINSam Steel: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:58MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P2 13:15MINBrandon Duhaime: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:15MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:50MINJon Merrill: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dach won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov8:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Boldy – Rossi9:21
xG 0.35–0.43 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Steel – Jost – Dewar6:47
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Hartman – Eriksson Ek – Duhaime9:06
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 5–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Addison10:07
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:30
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
- Dumba – Middleton2:53
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Evans – Pitlick6:00
xG 0.76–0.28 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Dach8:12
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Gallagher – Dvorak6:51
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Monahan – Suzuki – Caufield10:44
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris12:34
xG 0.91–0.35 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Xhekaj12:12
xG 0.87–0.42 (67%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Savard – Harris4:28
xG 0.09–0.10 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).