Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New Jersey Devils 6, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 215 | 215 | 211 | 641 |
| DET | 15 | 08 | 19 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56DETDylan LarkinAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Adam Erne · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:25NJDDawson MercerAssists: John Marino, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:16NJDJack HughesAssists: Erik Haula, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 0:43NJDJesper BrattPPGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 4:54NJDYegor SharangovichSHAssists: Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 8:17DETDominik KubalikAssists: Robert Hagg, Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 15:38NJDNico HischierAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 16:27NJDJesper BrattAssists: Michael McLeod, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:35DETRobert Hagg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:41NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:27NJDAlexander Holtz: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:37NJDDamon Severson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Rasmussen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Hischier – Zetterlund11:27
xG 0.86–0.25 (77%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Haula – Bratt – Hughes11:37
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod10:36
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Mercer – Holtz9:30
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Severson13:48
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Graves – Marino16:29
xG 0.65–0.34 (65%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler18:45
xG 0.63–0.69 (48%)attempts 19–15goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Zadina7:03
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Rasmussen2:33
xG 0.27–0.13 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Suter – Zadina3:01
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Erne – Veleno – Soderblom3:38
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Maatta2:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom14:23
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 13–16goals 1–2
- Maatta – Hronek17:37
xG 0.36–0.69 (34%)attempts 7–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).