Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 06 | 121 | 06 | 133 |
| CGY | 220 | 24 | 012 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:11CGYNazem KadriAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:41CGYNazem KadriGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 3:00CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 4:32PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Samuel Poulin · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P2 11:20CGYMichael StoneAssists: Milan Lucic, Brett Ritchie · Slap, 0.01 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:56PITChad Ruhwedel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:40CGYTrevor Lewis: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:55PITSamuel Poulin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:42CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:34CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:42PITChad Ruhwedel: Interference2 min
- P3 8:06CGYTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:58CGYMikael Backlund: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Malkin – Heinen10:38
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- McGinn – Kapanen – Poulin7:47
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:38
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Archibald – Caggiula – Poehling6:51
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Rutta9:39
xG 0.40–0.28 (58%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Rutta2:36
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:56
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Backlund – Coleman9:50
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Ritchie2:10
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm8:37
xG 0.53–0.50 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney6:41
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov14:06
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Tanev – Weegar14:10
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson11:46
xG 0.47–0.95 (33%)attempts 14–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).