Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Buffalo Sabres 1, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 15 | 06 | 116 |
| SEA | 211 | 28 | 15 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Daniel Sprong, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:39SEAMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: Brandon Tanev, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 4:46SEADaniel SprongAssists: Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 12:25BUFDylan CozensAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:07SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 9:45SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Daniel Sprong · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:13BUFRasmus Dahlin: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 16:15SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:54BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39SEADaniel Sprong: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:20SEAMorgan Geekie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:47SEAWill Borgen: Holding2 min
- P3 8:05BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Girgensons – Quinn7:38
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson9:00
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka9:29
xG 0.29–0.53 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt9:40
xG 0.33–0.96 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power9:28
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Lyubushkin7:48
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power9:11
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg9:44
xG 1.07–0.33 (76%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Sprong – Tanev – Geekie5:55
xG 0.69–0.06 (92%)attempts 6–4goals 3–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers10:06
xG 0.54–0.12 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Kuhlman7:56
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn11:10
xG 1.40–0.21 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Soucy – Borgen12:06
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak12:06
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 4–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).