Tue, Oct 25, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 09 | 19 | 225 |
| LAK | 17 | 211 | 115 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mikey Anderson · Poke, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 15:14TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:03LAKGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:17LAKBlake LizotteGWGAssists: Brandt Clarke, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 14:30LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 17:44TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:53TBLMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:48LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:19LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:51LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P1 19:33TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:50TBLIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:16LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 3:37LAKSean Durzi: Holding2 min
- P3 9:14TBLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Stamkos – Namestnikov5:08
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Bellemare – Point2:16
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel8:27
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Maroon – Paul – Colton6:41
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix6:04
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Hedman – Cernak9:06
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Fleury – Sergachev3:58
xG 0.07–0.08 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Moore – Vilardi9:07
xG 0.83–0.11 (88%)attempts 16–2goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:52
xG 0.47–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe12:33
xG 0.55–0.63 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Anderson-Dolan – Kaliyev – Byfield6:36
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Durzi11:30
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:10
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Edler – Clarke8:54
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).