Tue, Oct 25, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 114 | 07 | 310 | 431 |
| SJS | 06 | 216 | 09 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:51VGKPhil KesselAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 5:33SJSNico SturmAssists: Kevin Labanc, Evgeny Svechnikov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 19:25SJSMatt NietoAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 0:55VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Brayden McNabb, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 13:13VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 14:15VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 15:14SJSNico Sturm: Interference2 min
- P3 1:56VGKNicolas Hague: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:32VGKChandler Stephenson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Eichel13:10
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:54
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden10:36
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy8:24
xG 0.15–0.87 (14%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo16:13
xG 0.97–0.58 (63%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud14:06
xG 0.70–0.59 (54%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:36
xG 0.80–0.94 (46%)attempts 22–19goals 3–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Meier – Barabanov12:57
xG 1.03–0.89 (54%)attempts 28–13goals 0–1
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Sturm9:37
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Couture – Kunin – Gregor10:27
xG 0.37–0.50 (42%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
- Nieto – Lindblom – Lorentz6:51
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro2:45
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Benning12:04
xG 0.64–0.68 (49%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
- Ferraro – Simek13:58
xG 0.62–0.79 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).