Wed, Oct 26, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
New York Rangers 0, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 017 | 012 | 012 | 041 |
| NYI | 08 | 112 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:44NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 5:37NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Adam Pelech, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 15:22NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Adam Pelech, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:34NYRRyan Lindgren: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:32NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:09NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:55NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:16NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:53NYIAlexander Romanov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko10:16
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Goodrow – Vesey – Gauthier8:05
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:34
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carpenter – Blais7:19
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren14:44
xG 1.52–0.69 (69%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller16:14
xG 0.51–0.69 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2
- Hajek – Schneider11:38
xG 0.61–0.89 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:20
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier10:51
xG 0.96–0.72 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:29
xG 0.24–0.57 (29%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau9:42
xG 0.16–0.70 (18%)attempts 5–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Pelech4:27
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pulock – Dobson3:22
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:13
xG 0.93–0.94 (50%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).