Wed, Oct 26, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 06 | 211 | 328 |
| STL | 06 | 120 | 012 | 138 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Darnell Nurse, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 19:55STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Brayden Schenn · Bat, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 13:44EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Bat, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:33EDMZach HymanENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evander Kane · Tip-in, 0.79 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:15EDMRyan Murray: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:05STLNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:39STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:11EDMEvander Kane: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:26EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestShore – Ryan – McLeod2:17
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod7:15
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:45
xG 0.77–0.71 (52%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:57
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard8:22
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:57
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Ceci – Kulak4:59
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Kyrou – Thomas6:52
xG 0.51–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Barbashev – Kyrou5:32
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko2:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Barbashev5:49
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko16:03
xG 1.36–0.28 (83%)attempts 22–6goals 0–1
- Leddy – Faulk2:03
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola9:42
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).