Thu, Oct 27, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 110 | 09 | 129 |
| BOS | 112 | 18 | 313 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:42BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Derek Forbort, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 11:53BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:49DETAdam ErneAssists: Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 2:55BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 3:30BOSCraig SmithAssists: Tomas Nosek, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 4:34BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Hampus Lindholm · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:49DETDominik Kubalik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:00BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 8:30DETMichael Rasmussen: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:49DETMichael Rasmussen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:49BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 2:41DETMichael Rasmussen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41DETFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:44BOSDerek Forbort: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P3 18:13BOSCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:38DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54DETJoseph Veleno: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLuff – Suter – Zadina6:19
xG 0.55–0.17 (76%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Perron – Kubalik – Larkin9:42
xG 0.53–0.47 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Copp – Veleno – Raymond7:50
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Erne – Rasmussen – Soderblom6:11
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Hronek13:57
xG 0.70–0.68 (51%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom11:31
xG 0.32–0.31 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider12:00
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHall – Zacha – DeBrusk2:52
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak3:17
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Hall – Pastrnak4:27
xG 0.14–0.04 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Smith – Nosek6:02
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Carlo2:07
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Grzelcyk9:44
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zboril – Carlo11:31
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).