Thu, Oct 27, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 219 | 011 | 121 | 351 |
| PHI | 29 | 28 | 05 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 6:41PHITony DeAngeloAssists: Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 7:58FLAJosh MahuraAssists: Radko Gudas, Colin White · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 15:28PHIScott LaughtonPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 10:17PHIZack MacEwenAssists: Nick Seeler, Nicolas Deslauriers · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 11:29PHIJoel FarabeeGWGAssists: Kevin Hayes, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 0:36FLABrandon MontourPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:12PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:12FLAPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:08FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07PHITony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:44PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:44PHILukas Sedlak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:46PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:46FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:18PHIMorgan Frost: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:08FLAColin White: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk11:32
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell7:30
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 11–1goals 1–1
- Reinhart – Bennett – Balcers8:08
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg5:42
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Kiersted11:07
xG 0.69–0.14 (83%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling15:33
xG 1.15–0.79 (59%)attempts 25–17goals 1–2
- Gudas – Mahura12:52
xG 0.71–0.41 (64%)attempts 22–8goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Tippett – Cates10:19
xG 0.49–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Sedlak – MacEwen3:57
xG 0.05–0.13 (29%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee10:54
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim12:52
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen5:56
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Provorov3:30
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).