Thu, Oct 27, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 111 | 09 | 214 | 334 |
| BUF | 014 | 113 | 118 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:31MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:31BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 6:51MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: David Savard, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 12:54BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jacob Bryson, Lawrence Pilut · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 16:14MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: David Savard · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:22BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
- P1 3:13BUFJJ Peterka: Interference2 min
- P1 7:27MTLSean Monahan: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57MTLMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:13MTLChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:11BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Evans – Pitlick5:43
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Caufield9:21
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Drouin – Monahan – Dach8:15
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:23
xG 0.43–0.70 (38%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris12:53
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Wideman – Xhekaj11:27
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle15:31
xG 0.51–1.06 (32%)attempts 17–20goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Krebs5:34
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Mittelstadt – Quinn5:13
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:02
xG 0.71–0.77 (48%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Cozens – Peterka8:52
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Lyubushkin11:40
xG 0.50–0.40 (56%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Pilut9:06
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power17:02
xG 0.73–1.13 (39%)attempts 19–26goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).