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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 27, 2022·United Center, Chicago

Edmonton Oilers 6, Chicago Blackhawks 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM114212312638
CHI21221618536

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:29EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:20CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Max Domi · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:38CHIReese JohnsonAssists: Caleb Jones, Colin Blackwell · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
  4. P2 0:18EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 1:33CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Max Domi, Patrick Kane · Deflected, 0.19 xG2–3
  6. P2 8:28EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P2 16:46CHIMax DomiPPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.15 xG3–4
  8. P3 0:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.20 xG4–4
  9. P3 10:16EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–4
  10. P3 16:49CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jake McCabe, Caleb Jones · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–5
  11. P3 19:22EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–5
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 7:51EDMDylan Holloway: Interference2 min
  2. P1 16:33CHIJarred Tinordi: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 0:26EDMJack Campbell: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  4. P2 2:48EDMMarkus Niemelainen: Interference2 min
  5. P2 3:53CHISeth Jones: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 5:30EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 5:30EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 7:02CHICaleb Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P2 7:27CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Hooking2 min
  10. P2 8:07CHIJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
  11. P2 8:07EDMTyson Barrie: Cross checking2 min
  12. P2 8:57EDMDylan Holloway: Hooking2 min
  13. P2 11:43EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
  14. P2 15:53EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
  15. P2 16:16EDMEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  16. P2 18:42CHICaleb Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
  17. P3 2:57EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding2 min
  18. P3 4:48CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  19. P3 8:48CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: High sticking2 min · PPG
  20. P3 11:24CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
49% to win51% to win
← EDM attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Draisaitl
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCHI
38Shots on goal36
3.2Expected goals3.8
60Shot attempts51
29Faceoffs won35
7Power plays10
22Penalty minutes18
14Hits29
7Blocked shots7
2Giveaways13
5Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestFoegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod7:23

    xG 0.21–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0

  2. Ryan – Yamamoto – Holloway2:31

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  3. Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto6:25

    xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  4. Shore – Ryan – Holloway2:49

    xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestKulak – Bouchard7:20

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0

  2. Barrie – Nurse2:17

    xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0

  3. Ceci – Kulak2:36

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestBlackwell – Entwistle – Johnson3:43

    xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0

  2. Kane – Athanasiou – Domi7:41

    xG 0.37–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 2–0

  3. Dickinson – Lafferty – Kurashev5:41

    xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2

  4. Toews – Khaira – Raddysh4:37

    xG 0.05–0.18 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestTinordi – Murphy6:25

    xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0

  2. Johnson – Jones7:48

    xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1

  3. McCabe – Jones6:03

    xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 2–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.8 xGEDM 3.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #15 of 1312 this seasonSwing 3.78 · 11 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +50 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.

CHI winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).