Thu, Oct 27, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 0, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 08 | 012 | 027 |
| DAL | 113 | 06 | 18 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:50DALJason RobertsonGWGAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P3 10:54DALJoel KivirantaSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:52DALJoel Hanley: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:49DALMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:49WSHGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:03WSHMartin Fehérváry: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:14DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P3 15:56WSHConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:10DALNils Lundkvist: Holding2 min
- P3 19:52WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:16
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Protas9:35
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Sheary – Strome11:29
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Malenstyn6:40
xG 0.20–0.52 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – van Riemsdyk12:43
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov14:15
xG 0.93–0.80 (54%)attempts 22–18goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry14:32
xG 0.12–0.57 (18%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:40
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment10:11
xG 0.51–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:49
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston9:19
xG 0.16–0.57 (22%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Lindell13:16
xG 0.75–0.24 (75%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist15:06
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley10:44
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).