Thu, Oct 27, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 16 | 110 | 00 | 325 |
| SJS | 15 | 214 | 010 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Matt Nieto, Alexander Barabanov · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 5:14TORDavid KampfAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 5:15SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:57SJSTimo MeierPPAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 19:37TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 5:38TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 0:57SJSErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:28SJSJonah Gadjovich: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:20SJSRadim Simek: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33TORPierre Engvall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:47TORJustin Holl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:05SJSJonah Gadjovich: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:05TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:55SJSErik Karlsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:49SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf10:10
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews8:19
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews2:28
xG 0.14–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Bunting – Malgin6:56
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Sandin11:28
xG 0.63–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Giordano – Rielly2:12
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl2:40
xG 0.03–0.00 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Nieto – Barabanov10:32
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Hertl – Meier – Svechnikov9:39
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Labanc – Lorentz – Gadjovich3:59
xG 0.07–0.12 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Kunin – Sturm8:07
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro2:36
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Megna12:11
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Simek2:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).