Thu, Oct 27, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Winnipeg Jets 6, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 26 | 28 | 25 | 619 |
| LAK | 317 | 012 | 115 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:03WPGMark ScheifeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 9:47LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Trevor Moore, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 10:53LAKBlake LizotteAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Brendan Lemieux · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 14:33LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P1 18:03WPGAdam LowrySHAssists: David Gustafsson, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:04WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 18:55WPGNate SchmidtAssists: Adam Lowry, Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 4:45LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 14:23WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 19:19WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Morgan Barron, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.48 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:04WPGAxel Jonsson-Fjallby: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:17WPGSam Gagner: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:55WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P1 15:05LAKBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:55WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:53LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:59LAKAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:47LAKAdrian Kempe: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:50LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Lowry – Barron7:47
xG 0.30–0.25 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson6:14
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton12:02
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti8:59
xG 0.06–1.09 (5%)attempts 2–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Dillon – DeMelo3:17
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt12:15
xG 0.27–0.52 (34%)attempts 5–13goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Samberg7:15
xG 0.07–0.89 (7%)attempts 4–13goals 0–2
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore10:20
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe10:05
xG 0.71–0.25 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:53
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–2
- Anderson-Dolan – Vilardi – Kaliyev8:48
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Clarke10:36
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 2–2
- Roy – Durzi11:46
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 21–5goals 0–1
- Doughty – Clarke3:06
xG 0.53–0.11 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).