Fri, Oct 28, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 6, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 212 | 311 | 632 |
| CAR | 07 | 217 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:29NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Mathew Barzal, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 8:57CARMartin NecasAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 14:29NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 15:35CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 16:26NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 3:59NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 11:06NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 18:06NYIZach PariseENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:09CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:20NYIZach Parise: Interference2 min
- P2 17:57NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:55NYIMathew Barzal: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom12:36
xG 1.01–0.31 (76%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:54
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau11:43
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:05
xG 0.35–0.56 (39%)attempts 6–22goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:03
xG 1.08–0.50 (68%)attempts 18–20goals 1–1
- Dobson – Romanov15:19
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 12–22goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Aho13:33
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Aho – Jarvis4:23
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook6:51
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Fast – Teravainen4:07
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis8:07
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce18:35
xG 0.99–0.83 (54%)attempts 27–17goals 1–2
- Chatfield – Coghlan13:40
xG 0.58–0.78 (43%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin16:45
xG 0.49–0.74 (40%)attempts 22–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).