Fri, Oct 28, 2022·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 115 | 015 | 135 |
| VAN | 110 | 19 | 310 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52VANTanner PearsonAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 0:32VANBo HorvatPPGWGAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 16:03PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 10:28VANAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Luke Schenn, Ilya Mikheyev · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 16:42VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 17:50VANJ.T. MillerENAssists: Tyler Myers, Guillaume Brisebois · Snap, 0.38 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:32PITJosh Archibald: Holding2 min
- P1 8:10VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:45PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18VANKyle Burroughs: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 14:33VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:08VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:28PITJosh Archibald: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:03PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:03VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestArchibald – Caggiula – Poehling4:29
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell4:19
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Malkin – Rakell6:47
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Malkin – Heinen3:14
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Rutta6:00
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin10:49
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Petry – Dumoulin3:23
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Podkolzin – Aman6:15
xG 0.12–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Horvat – Garland9:04
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Pearson – Dries – Hoglander5:49
xG 0.05–0.03 (66%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko7:17
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Brisebois10:10
xG 1.22–0.36 (77%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Rathbone10:54
xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson15:07
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).