Sat, Oct 29, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Rangers 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 213 | 37 | 627 |
| DAL | 110 | 215 | 08 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:09DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:41NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.29 xG1–1
- P2 0:59NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 1:28DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 14:18NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 18:46DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 11:18NYRZac JonesGWGAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Julien Gauthier · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 11:37NYRJulien GauthierAssists: Sammy Blais, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 13:25NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.09 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:35DALNils Lundkvist: Interference2 min
- P1 17:30NYRRyan Carpenter: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:51DALJason Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:42NYRArtemi Panarin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:42DALTy Dellandrea: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:42DALJoel Hanley: Interference2 min
- P2 6:23NYRVincent Trocheck: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:23DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:15DALJoel Hanley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:23NYRK'Andre Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 16:54NYRSammy Blais: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:10NYRBarclay Goodrow: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko9:20
xG 1.36–0.26 (84%)attempts 22–3goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:33
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Carpenter – Blais – Gauthier7:37
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Gauthier2:34
xG 0.01–0.27 (3%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren12:18
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Schneider9:07
xG 0.52–0.42 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Schneider3:42
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:22
xG 0.97–0.55 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:37
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston7:59
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment9:10
xG 0.15–0.81 (16%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Lindell10:50
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Hanley10:56
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist16:22
xG 0.86–1.32 (39%)attempts 12–22goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).