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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 29, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise

Ottawa Senators 3, Florida Panthers 5

Away

Ottawa Senators

3

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT0421319326
FLA226121211558

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:59FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:54FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P2 0:37OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
  4. P2 3:23OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:23FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 11:56OTTNick HoldenAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P3 16:28FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.09 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:46FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 10:05OTTDerick Brassard: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 14:35FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 14:35OTTParker Kelly: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 14:35OTTParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 19:17FLARadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 6:39OTTMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 9:44OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 9:44FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 13:22OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 13:22FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 0:00OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
  12. P2 0:00FLAJosh Mahura: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 0:48FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 4:34OTTThomas Chabot: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
49% to win51% to win
← OTT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Brassard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTFLA
26Shots on goal58
2.3Expected goals6.0
45Shot attempts84
28Faceoffs won35
2Power plays4
16Penalty minutes12
39Hits30
15Blocked shots13
11Giveaways10
12Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:45

    xG 0.07–0.08 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Motte – Joseph – Pinto7:54

    xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0

  3. Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle10:36

    xG 0.63–1.13 (36%)attempts 7–19goals 1–2

  4. Giroux – Brassard – DeBrincat9:32

    xG 0.19–1.27 (13%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Chabot – Brannstrom4:19

    xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0

  2. Holden – Brannstrom4:49

    xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 4–6goals 2–1

  3. Holden – Chabot3:13

    xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestReinhart – Bennett – Balcers9:50

    xG 1.19–0.26 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0

  2. Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk9:13

    xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 20–3goals 3–0

  3. White – Luostarinen – Lundell6:32

    xG 0.54–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0

  4. Staal – Hornqvist – Lomberg6:32

    xG 0.02–0.30 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestGudas – Mahura13:29

    xG 1.50–0.34 (81%)attempts 26–6goals 0–0

  2. Montour – Forsling12:54

    xG 1.33–0.72 (65%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0

  3. Staal – Montour2:27

    xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 6.0 xGOTT 2.3 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 86/100 · #231 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.98 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +36 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 92% of the time.

FLA winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).