Sat, Oct 29, 2022·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 18 | 17 | 426 |
| SJS | 16 | 19 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 1:22SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:44TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Alex Killorn, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:36SJSNico SturmAssists: Luke Kunin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 18:41TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nick Paul, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:34SJSErik KarlssonPPAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 19:03TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:40SJSNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:36TBLPatrick Maroon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:29TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:31TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:12SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel11:55
xG 0.83–0.35 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke8:06
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:31
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul11:10
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix11:38
xG 1.06–0.39 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev3:45
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Foote11:27
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLindblom – Labanc – Lorentz6:08
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Nieto – Barabanov11:47
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Svechnikov12:41
xG 0.74–1.00 (43%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- Bonino – Kunin – Sturm9:13
xG 0.20–1.06 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna11:59
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Benning11:30
xG 0.36–0.32 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Ferraro2:19
xG 0.02–0.23 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).