Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 212 | 011 | 19 | 16 | 438 |
| PHI | 09 | 28 | 110 | 02 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:04CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 5:14PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Lukas Sedlak, Wade Allison · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 7:18PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 6:09PHIWade AllisonAssists: Lukas Sedlak, Nicolas Deslauriers · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 17:55CARMartin NecasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:06CARBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:50PHILukas Sedlak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:44CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:04PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 17:05PHITony DeAngelo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:05PHITravis Sanheim: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:05CARBrent Burns: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 2:09CARPaul Stastny: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:08CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:02PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:56CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:18CARSebastian Aho: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:07CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook12:01
xG 0.85–0.07 (93%)attempts 19–2goals 2–0
- Aho – Necas – Svechnikov6:12
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stepan – Noesen2:34
xG 0.30–0.15 (66%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis2:40
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield3:05
xG 0.70–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:29
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin14:06
xG 0.34–0.60 (36%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Sedlak – Allison4:29
xG 0.91–0.42 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Cates8:46
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bellows – MacEwen – Frost6:19
xG 0.27–0.43 (38%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Hayes – Konecny – Farabee7:41
xG 0.16–0.35 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Provorov11:40
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Braun – Sanheim3:47
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Seeler4:09
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).