Sat, Oct 29, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 217 | 03 | 00 | 326 |
| BUF | 116 | 015 | 213 | 11 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:20CHIJason DickinsonPPAssists: MacKenzie Entwistle, Caleb Jones · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 4:49CHISam LaffertyAssists: Jake McCabe, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 6:20CHITaylor RaddyshAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 11:55BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 16:47BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 0:36BUFVictor OlofssonPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:53CHIPhilipp Kurashev: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:51CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:48BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:20BUFVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 19:56BUFVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:12BUFRasmus Dahlin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:53CHIJonathan Toews: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Raddysh – Kurashev9:02
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Entwistle – Johnson7:05
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Lafferty9:55
xG 0.47–0.72 (39%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi11:47
xG 0.31–0.92 (25%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Murphy14:25
xG 0.68–0.69 (50%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- McCabe – Jones14:48
xG 0.92–1.02 (47%)attempts 15–28goals 1–1
- Johnson – Jones13:48
xG 0.47–0.86 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Mittelstadt – Quinn8:23
xG 0.80–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson4:04
xG 0.56–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–1goals 2–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka4:33
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka6:21
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Bryson2:13
xG 0.49–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Pilut2:29
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Clague – Power11:10
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).