Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 19 | 013 | 228 |
| LAK | 09 | 311 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:45TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 3:03LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:03LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 14:40LAKGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 16:58TORPierre EngvallAssists: David Kampf, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 2:11LAKKevin FialaUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:53TORCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:20LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:49LAKBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:26TORJustin Holl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:22TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:20TORMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 4:00LAKAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:44TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:56LAKMikey Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:20TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews10:56
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Engvall – Kampf6:35
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:03
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Jarnkrok – Robertson4:48
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Kral6:12
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Brodie – Sandin3:05
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Holl – Sandin10:51
xG 0.87–0.78 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Grundstrom – Kupari7:24
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Vilardi10:26
xG 0.57–0.58 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore10:57
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte2:18
xG 0.08–0.26 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Roy – Durzi11:08
xG 0.57–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Edler – Walker12:14
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson15:29
xG 0.54–0.76 (41%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).