Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 3, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 016 | 110 | 29 | 335 |
| NSH | 011 | 010 | 013 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:49WSHBeck MalenstynGWGAssists: Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 6:44WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Conor Sheary, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P3 17:15WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:50NSHNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:32WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:52WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:26NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P2 15:40WSHAliaksei Protas: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:01NSHTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:26WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:52WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Kuznetsov – Mantha4:40
xG 0.51–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Mantha – Protas4:31
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Malenstyn6:59
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Mantha – Strome2:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen6:29
xG 0.97–0.43 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk8:23
xG 0.86–0.63 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jensen – Gustafsson2:13
xG 0.21–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg6:08
xG 0.96–0.34 (74%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Granlund – Niederreiter – Trenin2:19
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Jeannot – Smith2:13
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Sanford2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier9:59
xG 0.97–0.59 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:28
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro10:45
xG 0.71–0.55 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).