Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 112 | 26 | 326 |
| CGY | 07 | 221 | 014 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:29CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:02EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 16:06CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Trevor Lewis, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 9:02EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Cody Ceci, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 12:24EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:59CGYMilan Lucic: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:52CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:27EDMDerek Ryan: Holding2 min
- P2 4:14CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:08CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:44EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:13
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod6:59
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Holloway4:37
xG 0.06–0.51 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:55
xG 0.26–1.12 (19%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulak – Bouchard12:37
xG 0.38–0.49 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:51
xG 0.30–0.94 (24%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Barrie – Niemelainen13:43
xG 0.15–1.15 (11%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Mangiapane – Dube7:54
xG 0.58–0.10 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney6:54
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm9:20
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman10:29
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:10
xG 1.36–0.42 (76%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Zadorov12:38
xG 1.09–0.87 (56%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
- Tanev – Weegar13:52
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).