Sat, Oct 29, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 18 | 016 | 133 |
| SEA | 012 | 211 | 17 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:05PITJake GuentzelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:20SEAJordan EberleAssists: Matty Beniers, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 18:33SEAMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: Daniel Sprong, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 19:00SEAJaden SchwartzENAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.55 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:00PITJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:57SEACarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P2 19:39SEACarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:15PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:50
xG 1.32–0.55 (71%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell11:35
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kapanen – Heinen – Poehling2:42
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Carter – Kapanen – Heinen3:28
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Rutta3:23
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:00
xG 0.90–0.84 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Petry – Dumoulin3:31
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Sprong – Geekie6:12
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers11:50
xG 0.75–0.63 (54%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Gourde – McCann – Tanev10:27
xG 0.23–0.55 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Burakovsky – Wennberg12:15
xG 0.64–1.04 (38%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Oleksiak3:28
xG 0.55–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:59
xG 1.31–0.92 (59%)attempts 25–18goals 2–0
- Soucy – Borgen2:31
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).