Sun, Oct 30, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 217 | 07 | 110 | 02 | 336 |
| ANA | 19 | 014 | 212 | 14 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:23ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Derek Grant, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 17:50TORDenis MalginAssists: William Nylander, Nick Robertson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 0:45TORCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:24ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Troy Terry · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 13:01ANADmitry KulikovAssists: Frank Vatrano, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:15ANATrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:40ANAAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:45ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:45TORMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:20ANAJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:05TORFilip Kral: Holding2 min
- P2 19:56TORAuston Matthews: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:27ANACam Fowler: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestEngvall – Aston-Reese – Kampf9:01
xG 0.88–0.37 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews13:48
xG 0.97–0.62 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Kerfoot8:42
xG 0.45–0.47 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Nylander – Malgin – Robertson6:00
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl4:15
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Giordano – Sandin2:29
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Sandin12:58
xG 0.90–0.69 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – Silfverberg – Lundeström7:10
xG 0.31–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Jones – Comtois – Lundeström2:21
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Vatrano – Zegras8:09
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Terry – Comtois2:58
xG 0.04–0.32 (10%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Klingberg17:48
xG 1.24–1.21 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Fowler – Benoit12:26
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – White5:43
xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).