Mon, Oct 31, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 3, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 29 | 13 | 318 |
| BUF | 114 | 315 | 417 | 846 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:52BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Casey Fitzgerald · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 1:26DETOlli MaattaAssists: Andrew Copp, Filip Hronek · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:22BUFJack QuinnAssists: Tage Thompson, Kyle Okposo · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:26BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 18:30BUFTage ThompsonPPGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 19:03DETDavid PerronAssists: Joseph Veleno, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 4:19DETDylan LarkinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 12:53BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 14:47BUFDylan CozensAssists: Owen Power, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–6
- P3 15:58BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–7
- P3 19:21BUFRasmus AsplundAssists: Peyton Krebs, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–8
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:09DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:55BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 16:01DETGustav Lindstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:00DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 2:38DETAlex Nedeljkovic: Interference2 min
- P3 9:51BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:51DETDylan Larkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:06DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Veleno – Raymond2:56
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 1–0
- Erne – Larkin – Raymond9:30
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Smith – Suter – Soderblom9:08
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–14goals 0–2
- Perron – Kubalik – Copp8:08
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 3–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Hronek17:48
xG 0.32–0.59 (36%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Seider15:37
xG 0.78–1.11 (41%)attempts 12–23goals 1–1
- Hagg – Lindstrom13:52
xG 0.12–0.87 (12%)attempts 8–20goals 0–3
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Thompson9:52
xG 0.82–0.38 (69%)attempts 18–9goals 2–1
- Girgensons – Asplund – Krebs11:03
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Quinn9:32
xG 0.47–0.33 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka11:40
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Power11:06
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 19–4goals 1–1
- Fitzgerald – Pilut14:47
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Bryson – Dahlin15:08
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).