Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 08 | 110 | 12 | 331 |
| WSH | 16 | 111 | 04 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 18:55VGKJack EichelPPAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:01WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 14:04VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: William Karlsson, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:35VGKShea TheodoreGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:01VGKBrett Howden: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:17VGKJonathan Marchessault: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:17WSHMartin Fehérváry: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:22WSHErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 1:18WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:08VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:47
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel13:11
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 21–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden7:25
xG 0.18–0.25 (42%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy7:51
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:19
xG 0.64–0.35 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo16:26
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud13:40
xG 0.33–0.34 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Snively – Protas8:46
xG 0.17–0.11 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Eller – Dowd – Hathaway2:45
xG 0.00–0.01 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sheary – Strome13:26
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Dowd – Hathaway – Malenstyn2:59
xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – van Riemsdyk17:38
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Irwin – Gustafsson12:25
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry17:05
xG 0.17–0.43 (29%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).