Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Montréal Canadiens 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 012 | 18 | 135 |
| MIN | 07 | 319 | 15 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:09MINMason ShawAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:29MINKirill KaprizovPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 14:55MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 13:30MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Chris Wideman · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:52MINMatt BoldyENAssists: Connor Dewar, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P2 2:37MTLJoel Armia: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 4:22MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:50MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P2 14:55MTLCole Caufield: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:11MINTyson Jost: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:40MTLChris Wideman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:40MTLJake Evans: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:40MINJared Spurgeon: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:40MTLJake Evans: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:40MTLChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:28MINConnor Dewar: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:28MTLArber Xhekaj: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:28MTLSean Monahan: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield12:48
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:20
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Armia – Drouin – Monahan8:14
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Evans – Pitlick – Slafkovský8:55
xG 0.03–0.33 (8%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Xhekaj12:59
xG 0.43–0.21 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle13:56
xG 0.71–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Kovacevic – Harris16:05
xG 0.26–0.93 (22%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFogarty – Steel – Dewar4:18
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Shaw – Boldy10:25
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Fogarty – Jost – Rossi3:32
xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov12:15
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton15:30
xG 0.79–0.37 (68%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Addison11:42
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Merrill – Dumba18:31
xG 0.53–0.95 (36%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).