Tue, Nov 1, 2022·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 3, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 111 | 08 | 214 | 333 |
| CHI | 05 | 09 | 18 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:35NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri · Poke, 0.24 xG1–0
- P3 7:23NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Ross Johnston · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 10:19CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Caleb Jones, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:46NYIZach PariseENAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.52 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:56NYICasey Cizikas: Interference5 min
- P1 2:56NYICasey Cizikas: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 11:44CHIJujhar Khaira: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:58CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:23CHIJason Dickinson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:08NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:18CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 9:29NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:48NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Beauvillier8:01
xG 0.61–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Parise – Palmieri – Pageau9:08
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Pageau – Johnston2:19
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Bailey – Barzal2:29
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov10:44
xG 0.76–0.14 (85%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock11:47
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Aho11:42
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKhaira – Katchouk – Johnson6:38
xG 0.30–0.13 (69%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Lafferty – Entwistle7:53
xG 0.14–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Raddysh – Kurashev9:22
xG 0.21–0.32 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi10:32
xG 0.10–0.37 (20%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jones – Roos11:07
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Tinordi – Murphy13:11
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Johnson – McCabe13:21
xG 0.33–0.88 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).