Tue, Nov 1, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 214 | 010 | 232 |
| DAL | 118 | 410 | 012 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 5:21LAKKevin FialaAssists: Carl Grundstrom, Drew Doughty · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 9:01DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 10:17DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 10:31DALRoope HintzUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 14:37LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 18:37DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:17LAKBlake Lizotte: Holding2 min
- P1 2:54DALJoe Pavelski: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 5:36LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24LAKMikey Anderson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:51DALNils Lundkvist: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:57LAKPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:24DALTy Dellandrea: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Arvidsson – Moore9:49
xG 0.69–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Vilardi13:26
xG 0.78–0.64 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Fiala – Grundstrom – Lizotte2:04
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Fiala – Grundstrom – Kupari7:52
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Walker11:28
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Roy – Clarke3:42
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Walker – Clarke2:14
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:18
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Seguin – Gurianov – Marchment11:01
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston10:34
xG 0.76–0.60 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta9:31
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell13:50
xG 1.14–0.54 (68%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Heiskanen14:10
xG 0.54–0.51 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Suter – Lundkvist16:28
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).