Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 4, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 18 | 27 | 423 |
| EDM | 414 | 114 | 29 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 4:14EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:25EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kailer Yamamoto · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 7:51EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 14:58EDMDerek RyanAssists: Tyson Barrie, Devin Shore · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 7:26EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 9:28NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 4:51NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 8:55EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 17:10NSHNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–6
- P3 18:23EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:21NSHKiefer Sherwood: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:26NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P2 6:35NSHKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:44EDMBrett Kulak: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:36NSHMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 16:55EDMTyson Barrie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:26EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:26NSHKiefer Sherwood: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:37NSHMichael McCarron: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:32
xG 0.79–0.60 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 2–2
- McCarron – Tolvanen – Smith3:12
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sherwood5:22
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith2:39
xG 0.05–0.23 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier11:59
xG 0.87–0.16 (84%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Josi – Ekholm2:42
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro14:22
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:09
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod10:12
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Shore – Ryan – Holloway6:55
xG 0.14–0.28 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto13:12
xG 0.42–0.96 (30%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Niemelainen11:24
xG 1.12–0.19 (85%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Ceci – Kulak2:54
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard13:33
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).